Industry Forecast: How Much Revenue Will Your HVAC Business Bring In This Year?

Written by | Featured, Field Service, HVAC News, Plumbing News

Life is crazy, but only for those who have no plans for it.

Running an HVAC business can sometimes feel like riding a horse without a saddle or running through a maze without a map. Sure you can’t predict the future accurately every time, but looking at the data from previous years can help you to make educated forecasts about the future.

The recession hit the residential HVAC industry hard, but rates are slowly making a comeback. Replacement rates are on the rise, heading towards record highs.

According to the Global and US HVAC Market Research Report by Chisult Insight, the HVAC market will grow by 11% in 2016 and 5% in 2017, great news for residential HVAC businesses. Similarly, the MAPI Foundation foresees a 4% gain in 2018.

Unfortunately, the commercial US HVAC industry doesn’t have the same positive forecast. The report reveals that the industry suffered a 20% decline in volume, but it does state that the market is stable and will see about 4% growth from 2016 to 2017.

On the construction side, HVAC’s brother industry, spending for home improvement fell 11% and commercial spending on construction rose 9% year over year from 2015 to 2016. According to, the construction industry is expected to continue to see growth in 2017, which could foster growth for HVAC businesses in tandem.

Job Growth

One of the HVAC/Plumbing industry’s biggest challenges continues to be a lack of skilled workers to meet the increase in demand and as stated above, the number of HVAC and plumbing jobs is expected to increase in both new construction and the residential side.


According to a report by Franchise Help, the HVAC Industry accounted for 292,000 jobs in 2014 and is expected to grow 14% by 2024. On the other hand, the plumbing industry accounted for 425,000 jobs and is expected to see 12% growth by 2024.

What does this mean for your business?

2017 could prove to be a great year for HVAC and plumbing service businesses if all goes according to plan. Data shows that the US economy is in relatively good shape, on track to grow 2.0 to 2.5% over the next year or so. With the recent election of Donald Trump, the US can expect major policy changes, tax cuts, and stricter immigration regulations.

If President Trump follows through on his promises to stimulate the economy, growth could be seen as quickly as late 2017 or early 2018 – great news for HVAC and plumbing business owners looking to grow and expand their businesses in 2017 and the years to come.

For more information on how Trump’s tax and immigration plans could affect your small business, check out this article.


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Last Updated By: Rochelle Sanchirico


Last modified: May 2, 2018

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